The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is already making waves. Some view it as a strategic move to “modernize Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity,” as the executive order outlines. Others fear that its cost-cutting efforts could impact essential social programs.
According to The Independent, President Trump has assured the public that “Medicare and Social Security will not be touched,” but other federal programs might not be as protected. In a concerning report, Forbes wrote, “To achieve $500 billion in annual savings, DOGE will almost certainly target Medicaid, which provides healthcare for over 90 million low-income Americans, including children, seniors, and individuals with disabilities. Several cost-cutting strategies are on the table, including reducing federal payments to states, tightening eligibility criteria, and restructuring Medicaid into lower-cost block grants.”
With millions of Americans relying on government benefits, many are asking: What changes could DOGE bring? And which programs might be impacted? Today, we’ll examine what experts and policymakers say about DOGE’s potential influence on key benefits programs.
What is DOGE?
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was established by executive order on January 20, 2025, as a Presidential Advisory Commission (PAC) tasked with identifying inefficiencies in federal operations.
According to the executive order, DOGE was created to “modernize Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.” However, many experts believe its true focus extends beyond technology. Elon Musk, a key figure in DOGE, has publicly stated that cutting government waste should be a top priority. Vivek Ramaswamy has suggested eliminating entire federal agencies to improve efficiency.
Despite these ambitious proposals, DOGE’s actual authority is limited. Reuters explains,
“The committee, despite its name, is not a department and has limited official power to carry out any reorganization, let alone the sweeping cuts proposed by Musk and Ramaswamy.”
This means that any major budget reductions or regulatory overhauls would require additional executive action or congressional approval.
While its exact role is still unfolding, DOGE’s influence could extend to federal budget discussions, particularly regarding wasteful spending and regulatory reforms. Critics worry that these efforts could reduce government programs, but supporters argue that DOGE will help eliminate inefficiencies that burden taxpayers.
Programs DOGE Might Influence
While DOGE does not have direct authority over federal benefits programs, its recommendations could influence future budget discussions and government restructuring efforts. Some experts believe that cost-cutting strategies will focus on programs that serve low-income Americans, such as Medicaid and ACA subsidies, rather than protected programs like Social Security and Medicare.
Medicaid
Medicaid provides health coverage to over 90 million low-income Americans, including children, seniors, people with disabilities, and low-income families. The program is jointly funded by federal and state governments, meaning federal policy changes directly affect state-level healthcare funding and eligibility requirements.
How DOGE Might Influence Medicaid
- Block grants vs. federal matching: Experts speculate that federal funding for Medicaid could shift to block grants, meaning states would receive a fixed amount instead of open-ended federal matching funds (Forbes).
- Eligibility restrictions: The federal government could tighten income and work requirements, making it harder for some individuals to qualify. (Forbes)
- State-level cost-sharing increases: States could be required to cover a greater share of Medicaid expenses, potentially leading to service reductions or stricter eligibility criteria (Forbes)
While no official Medicaid changes have been announced, policy analysts suggest it remains a key target for future cost-cutting proposals.
ACA Subsidies & Exchanges
Over 16 million Americans receive health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace, many of whom rely on federal subsidies to lower monthly premiums and out-of-pocket costs.
How DOGE Might Influence ACA Subsidies
- Cost-Sharing Reduction (CSR) payments: Forbes warns that if Congress allows CSR payments to expire in 2026, millions of Americans could lose affordable insurance.
- Potential subsidy reductions: The government could scale back premium subsidies, making ACA plans more expensive for low-income families (Forbes).
While no immediate ACA cuts have been announced, budget negotiations will likely determine the program’s future funding levels.
Housing & Food Assistance
Federal housing and food assistance programs provide vital support to millions of Americans. These programs are federally funded but administered at the state level, meaning funding changes could directly affect eligibility and benefit amounts.
How DOGE Might Influence Housing & Food Programs
While no direct proposals have been made to cut housing or food assistance, budget analysts warn that protecting Social Security, Medicare, and veterans’ programs could force deep cuts elsewhere.
“And if Social Security, Medicare, and veterans’ programs were protected, the rest of the budget could have to be cut by 62%, affecting defense, food stamps, home heating assistance, housing aid, food safety inspections, and infrastructure, among others.”
While SNAP, WIC, and Section 8 haven’t been publicly named as DOGE targets, future federal spending reviews could impact funding allocations.
Programs That Are Likely Untouchable
While the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aims to identify and reduce federal spending, certain programs are widely considered politically untouchable. President Trump has stated that Social Security and Medicare will not face cuts, emphasizing their importance to millions of Americans. However, achieving significant budget reductions without affecting these programs presents challenges.
Social Security & Medicare
Social Security and Medicare provide essential benefits to retirees, individuals with disabilities, and low-income seniors. President Trump has pledged not to cut these programs.
Despite this assurance, some budget proposals have included reductions in related areas, such as Medicaid, to address the federal deficit. For instance, the Project 2025 plan suggests significant cuts to Medicaid, which could indirectly impact healthcare services for low-income individuals, including those with dual eligibility for Medicaid and Medicare.
Veterans’ Benefits & Defense Spending
Due to their critical roles, veterans’ benefits and defense spending are traditionally safeguarded in budget discussions. However, with the federal deficit reaching $1.83 trillion, some experts argue that all areas, including defense, may need to be evaluated for potential savings. Balancing fiscal responsibility with maintaining essential services and national security is the challenge.
Challenges in Achieving Budget Cuts
Protecting major programs like Social Security and Medicare while attempting to reduce the federal deficit necessitates deeper cuts in other areas. Analysts warn that exempting these significant programs could substantially reduce other critical services, such as education, infrastructure, and public health initiatives. This underscores the complexity of fiscal policy decisions and the need for comprehensive strategies that consider both economic and social impacts.
What Happens Next?
With DOGE now officially established, many Americans wonder what comes next and whether it will lead to changes in federal programs. While the commission is operational, its true impact remains unclear, as it can only recommend changes, not implement them.
At this time, no immediate changes to benefits programs have been announced. As DOGE continues its work, staying informed is key. Following updates from the White House, tracking Congressional discussions, and relying on credible news sources like Reuters, Forbes, and CNBC may be essential for those who want to monitor potential changes. While DOGE’s role is still evolving, its recommendations could shape future policy decisions that affect millions of Americans.